There is limited room for concessions on the raw material side, and the tungsten market will mainly fluctuate at highs in the short term [SMM Tungsten Daily Review]

On June 27, the overall tungsten market was mainly characterized by high-level consolidation. Mainstream ore-holding suppliers in the market had low inventory levels and were reluctant to offer discounts, limiting the decline in ore prices and keeping offers high. Downstream APT enterprises faced poor profitability, with some smelters reducing production for maintenance.
Ore: As of June 26, SMM's black tungsten concentrate (65%) closed at 172,000-173,000 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. With low market inventory, upstream suppliers mainly shipped according to long-term contracts, while downstream enterprises restocked based on immediate needs, resulting in stable overall transactions.
Ammonium paratungstate (APT): Today, SMM's ammonium paratungstate (≥88.5%) was quoted at 250,000-253,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 251,500 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. APT smelting enterprises faced high costs and industry losses, but downstream powder demand was poor, leading to a stalemate in the market. Downstream powder enterprises had low raw material inventory and were forced to restock, but they often drove down prices before purchasing. Affected by the three-month extension of the export ban in the DRC, the spot price of cobalt powder surged significantly, increasing cost pressure for downstream cemented carbide factories and reducing their willingness to take orders.
In the short term, the macro situation in the Middle East has shown signs of easing, and overseas risk-aversion sentiment has somewhat abated. Fundamentals side, the domestic tungsten industry chain is in a tight balance, with low upstream ore inventory and mining control limiting price corrections. Downstream smelting enterprises face poor profitability, with weak supply and demand, highlighting structural contradictions in the industry chain. A tug-of-war between longs and shorts persists, and the market is undergoing restructuring, maintaining high-level consolidation in the short term. Follow-up attention should be paid to the pricing of long-term contracts by mainstream enterprises in July and the downstream operating rates.

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